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Concept costing for defence projects: the problem and its solution

P. G. Pugh *

Defence and Peace Economics, 2004, vol. 15, issue 1, 39-57

Abstract: It is intrinsic to the nature of military competition that the unit acquisition costs of defence systems rise generation by generation. Traditional "bottom-up" methods of cost-estimating cannot meet the increasing demands for extensive studies of many options before commencing design and, while "top-down" estimating techniques are an improvement, in particular by reducing the time required for preparing estimates, they also are inadequate to meet current requirements. A new method has been devised, therefore, further developing "top-down" methods using Bayesian techniques to make best use of the available information, whether certain or uncertain, and its accuracy established by example.

Date: 2004
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DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000164487

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