Growth recovery after civil conflict: a fractional integration approach

Luis Gil-Alana and Prakarsh Singh

Defence and Peace Economics, 2016, vol. 27, issue 4, 453-479

Abstract: Using recent econometric techniques based on fractional integration, we find that developing countries recover their economic growth faster than developed countries in response to a shock. Following this methodology, we find that longer civil conflicts are associated with a faster recovery process. We further investigate this issue by exploring correlations with components of GDP, military spending, institutions and aid and find heterogeneous effects of these channels by duration of conflict. Higher government spending is correlated with faster recoveries post longer conflicts, and higher consumption spending is linked to faster recoveries following shorter conflicts. Military spending appears to be driving the government expenditure that makes countries recover from longer conflicts. More democratic institutions are associated with faster recoveries post short wars but slower recoveries following long wars.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1072375

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