Military Operations Abroad in the Long Run: An Economic Approach

Josselin Droff, Julien Malizard and Maxime Menuet

Defence and Peace Economics, 2023, vol. 34, issue 4, 456-476

Abstract: In recent decades, many western countries engaged in Military Operations Abroad (MOA), sometimes with over-stretching military engagements such as antiterrorism, peacekeeping, or humanitarian interventions. These aggressive postures pose a heightened risk to future deployment capacities and the ability to ensure a deterrence strategy in the long run. This study investigates a theoretical model to analyze the sustainability of military operations over time. In our setup, we define military capacity as a stock variable that can regenerate itself and deplete when a country engages in MOA. We present a sustainability theorem with the identification of tipping points in the conduct of MOA. Especially, engaging in excessive military operations leads to a relative ‘demilitarization syndrome.’ This underlines a fundamental trade-off between economic conditions and strategic ambitions. The model sheds some light on the dynamics of the military capabilities of a group of major western military powers.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2038435

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