Impact of technological change on growth trajectory of India: a multivariate-BVAR analysis

Debasis Rooj and Rituparna Kaushik

Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 2024, vol. 33, issue 7, 1029-1049

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of technological change on Indian economic growth using the Bayesian Vector Auto-Regressive (BVAR) methodology. We use a comprehensive annual time series dataset covering the period of 1980 to 2019 on real economic activity, gross fixed capital formation, and employment. Technological innovation is measured by the number of patents filed by resident Indians. Technological innovation positively impacts both economic growth and gross fixed capital formation. Our findings indicate that increasing the number of patents leads to higher investment, which drives India's economic growth. However, our results also point towards the possible negative influence of technological innovation on the aggregate employment scenario in India. Our main findings are robust to alternative identification strategies and variable transformation. The asymmetric analysis also corroborates the positive influence of patents on driving investment and economic growth in India.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/10438599.2023.2267994

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