R&D lags in economic models

Shanchao Wang, Julian M. Alston and Philip G. Pardey

Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 2025, vol. 34, issue 6, 842-862

Abstract: Quite different R&D lag structures predominate in studies of agricultural R&D compared with studies of R&D in other industries, and compared with studies of economic growth more broadly. Here we compare the main models and their implications using long-run data for U.S. agriculture. We reject the models predominantly used in studies of economic growth and industrial R&D both on prior grounds and using various statistical tests. The preferred model is a 50-year gamma lag distribution model. The estimated elasticity of agricultural MFP with respect to the knowledge stock is 0.21 and the implied marginal benefit–cost ratio is 18:1.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/10438599.2024.2378893

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