USING TIME-SERIES TO MEASURE UNCERTAINTY IN ENVIRONMENTAL INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS

Asuka Yamakawa and Glen Peters

Economic Systems Research, 2009, vol. 21, issue 4, 337-362

Abstract: Environmental Input-Output Analysis (EIOA) is a tool for environmental analysis of broad classes of sectoral activities, taking into account indirect effects in other sectors in the supply chain. The core of EIOA is an input-output table (IOT) and national accounting matrix including environmental accounts (NAMEA) for a fixed base-year. We evaluate the uncertainty in EIOA using a time series of current-price IOT and NAMEA for 13 years from 1990 to 2002. We find annual variations in the current-price IOT and NAMEA, which may represent either realistic changes in production or measurement error. We assume the changes are errors and apply a regression analysis to remove the trends from the underlying data and estimate the uncertainty in the raw IOT. We then calculate the emissions for various final users and sectors to estimate the uncertainties from typical EIOA investigations. Using Monte Carlo analysis, we then investigate how well the variations in the current-price IOT and NAMEA over time may represent uncertainties. The results of this work have several implications for both statistical offices and the analyst. Statistical offices can provide details on data sources, methodologies, and estimates of annual variations. Analysts can incorporate this uncertainty information to understand the implications of uncertainty on their calculations and ultimately the policy recommendations derived from their studies.

Keywords: Environmental input-output analysis; NAMEA; Uncertainty; National accounts; Monte Carlo analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09535310903444766 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:21:y:2009:i:4:p:337-362

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CESR20

DOI: 10.1080/09535310903444766

Access Statistics for this article

Economic Systems Research is currently edited by Bart Los and Manfred Lenzen

More articles in Economic Systems Research from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().