PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF WORKFORCE-BASED DISRUPTIONS AND INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS OF INTERDEPENDENT RIPPLE EFFECTS

Mark Orsi and Joost Santos

Economic Systems Research, 2010, vol. 22, issue 1, 3-18

Abstract: This paper extends the formulation of the input-output model to account for events that cause time varying and probabilistic workforce disruptions. One example of such an event is a pandemic, because the rates with which it affects the working population vary from period to period and are coupled with uncertainties. To address such complexities, the paper develops two extensions: (i) a method of translating unavailable workforce into a measure of sector productivity disruption, and (ii) a simulation framework to account for the possible variations in economic output losses. These extensions are implemented via a MATLAB program to simulate a pandemic scenario in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Keywords: Dynamic inoperability input-output model; Pandemic; Workforce disruptions; Virginia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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DOI: 10.1080/09535311003612419

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