ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF A PORT SHUTDOWN: THE SPECIAL ROLE OF RESILIENCE

Adam Rose and Dan Wei

Economic Systems Research, 2013, vol. 25, issue 2, 212-232

Abstract: This paper develops a methodology for the estimation of the total economic consequences of a seaport disruption, factoring in the major types of resilience. The foundation of the methodology is a combination of demand-driven and supply-driven input--output analyses. Resilience is included through a series of ad hoc adjustments based on various formal models and expert judgment. Moreover, we have designed the methodology in a manner that overcomes the major shortcomings of the supply-driven approach. We apply the methodology to a 90-day disruption at the twin seaports of Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas, which is a major port area that includes a petrochemical manufacturing complex. We find that regional gross output could decline by as much as $13 billion at the port region level, but that resilience can reduce these impacts by nearly 70%.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2012.731379

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