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A POST-KEYNESIAN AGE MODEL TO FORECAST ENERGY DEMAND IN SPAIN

Óscar Dejuán, Luis Antonio López, María Ángeles Tobarra and Jorge Zafrilla ()

Economic Systems Research, 2013, vol. 25, issue 3, 321-340

Abstract: This paper develops an extended input-output model for the estimation of energy demand and related issues. It is built on the last Spanish Symmetric Input-Output Table (IOT, 2005). It has been tested for the period 2005-2008 and used for forecasting energy demand for the years 2009-2012 under different economic scenarios. The model shares some traits of the computable and applied general equilibrium models where quantity and price systems are interwoven. The differences lie in the theories explaining output and prices. Our quantity system is based on Keynes' principle of effective demand (broad energy multipliers are derived). The price system is based on the classical (Sraffian) theory of prices of production, akin to post-Keynesian full-cost prices. The general price system can be manipulated to account for the specificities of energy prices. Historical trends of energy coefficients are computed by extrapolation of past IOTs and calibration.

Date: 2013
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