ON BR�DY'S CONJECTURE: THEORY, FACTS AND FIGURES ABOUT INSTABILITY OF THE US ECONOMY

Theodore Mariolis () and Lefteris Tsoulfidis ()

Economic Systems Research, 2014, vol. 26, issue 2, 209-223

Abstract: Br�dy's conjecture regarding the instability of economies is submitted to an empirical test using input--output flow tables of varying size for the US economy, for the benchmark years 1997 and 2002, as well as for the period 1998--2011. The results obtained using input--output tables of various dimensions lend support to the view of increasing instability (in the sense of Br�dy) of the US economy over the period considered. Furthermore, our analysis shows that only a few vertically integrated industries are enough to shape the behaviour of the entire economy in the case of a disturbance. These results may usefully be contrasted with those derived in a parallel literature on aggregate fluctuations from microeconomic 'idiosyncratic' shocks.

Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (22)

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DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2013.879698

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