Are CGE models reliable for disaster impact analyses?

Lei Zhou and Zhenhua Chen

Economic Systems Research, 2021, vol. 33, issue 1, 20-46

Abstract: This study investigates a fundamental issue of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling: are CGE models reliable for measuring the economic consequence analysis of disasters? We assess the outputs of CGE analyses after controlling for various modeling factors such as data, type of model, and modeling mechanisms via a meta-analysis of 253 CGE simulations in 57 empirical studies. Our study arrives at three major findings. First, we confirm that resilience significantly reduces business disruptions from disasters. Second, results using either real-world or hypothetical data tend to vary substantially by hazard type. Third, results are quite sensitive to model assumptions and modeling structure. Overall, we suggest that future impact assessments of disasters should be conducted more cautiously in terms of adopting appropriate data, models, and shock scenarios, in order to improve the validity of CGE modeling outcomes.

Date: 2021
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09535314.2020.1780566 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:33:y:2021:i:1:p:20-46

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CESR20

DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1780566

Access Statistics for this article

Economic Systems Research is currently edited by Bart Los and Manfred Lenzen

More articles in Economic Systems Research from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().