An ex-ante study on the impacts of reduced EU sugar consumption: a sweet mix of health and environmental benefits

George Philippidis and Ana I. Sanjuán-López

Economic Systems Research, 2025, vol. 37, issue 2, 196-222

Abstract: This paper estimates the health and environmental benefits from reducing sugar intake in EU households. A CGE model is modified by linking probability density functions of body mass index for EU populations to a complete demand system with nutrition accounting. Following the WHO recommendation, sugar intake is reduced to 10% of total dietary energy intake, whilst two further scenarios explore more ambitious targets of 7.5% and 5%. This dietary transition leads to a relative reduction in overweight and obese EU adults of between 8 and 15 million by 2050, with potentially significant health gains in Scandinavia. Environmental ‘footprints’ reveal relative land and emissions savings of up to 56m2 and 20 kgCO2e per capita per year by 2050. With scientific evidence supporting a virtuous circle of improved health, higher wages and increased macroeconomic performance, the reported negative impacts on economic indicators in this study could be reversed through targeted redistributive policies.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2024.2429378

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