Invisible chains of conflict: economy-wide spillovers from an agricultural shock in Ukraine – mixed input–output evidence

Jérôme Verny, Youssef Bouazizi, Ouail Oulmakki and Luc Savard

Economic Systems Research, 2026, vol. 38, issue 2, 163-174

Abstract: This article quantifies how a conflict-related agricultural supply shock propagates through Ukraine’s economy. Instead of the conventional demand-driven Leontief model, we use a mixed input – output model that introduces the shock directly as a capacity constraint in agriculture. In our central scenario, a 25% reduction in the agricultural workforce leads to a 4.6% decline in GDP, and impacts spread rapidly beyond farming. Sectors highly dependent on agricultural inputs are hit hardest, with chemicals (−30%) and motor vehicles (−28.8%) showing the largest losses, while public services remain comparatively stable. Sensitivity and robustness checks indicate near proportional effects, consistent with fixed-coefficient technologies and short-run rigidities. The results reveal a hierarchy of vulnerabilities and provide policy-relevant benchmarks to help secure critical supply chains and strengthen economic resilience against cascading shocks.

Date: 2026
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09535314.2025.2607545 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:38:y:2026:i:2:p:163-174

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CESR20

DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2025.2607545

Access Statistics for this article

Economic Systems Research is currently edited by Bart Los and Manfred Lenzen

More articles in Economic Systems Research from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().