The Volatility of Realized Volatility

Fulvio Corsi (), Stefan Mittnik, Christian Pigorsch and Uta Pigorsch

Econometric Reviews, 2008, vol. 27, issue 1-3, 46-78

Abstract: In recent years, with the availability of high-frequency financial market data modeling realized volatility has become a new and innovative research direction. The construction of “observable” or realized volatility series from intra-day transaction data and the use of standard time-series techniques has lead to promising strategies for modeling and predicting (daily) volatility. In this article, we show that the residuals of commonly used time-series models for realized volatility and logarithmic realized variance exhibit non-Gaussianity and volatility clustering. We propose extensions to explicitly account for these properties and assess their relevance for modeling and forecasting realized volatility. In an empirical application for S&P 500 index futures we show that allowing for time-varying volatility of realized volatility and logarithmic realized variance substantially improves the fit as well as predictive performance. Furthermore, the distributional assumption for residuals plays a crucial role in density forecasting.

Keywords: Density forecasting; Finance; HAR-GARCH; Normal inverse Gaussian distribution; Realized quarticity; Realized volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (241)

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DOI: 10.1080/07474930701853616

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