Wild bootstrap seasonal unit root tests for time series with periodic nonstationary volatility

Giuseppe Cavaliere, Anton Skrobotov () and Robert Taylor

Econometric Reviews, 2019, vol. 38, issue 5, 509-532

Abstract: We investigate the behavior of the well-known Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (HEGY) regression-based seasonal unit root tests in cases where the driving shocks can display periodic nonstationary volatility and conditional heteroskedasticity. Our set up allows for periodic heteroskedasticity, nonstationary volatility and (seasonal) generalized autoregressive-conditional heteroskedasticity as special cases. We show that the limiting null distributions of the HEGY tests depend, in general, on nuisance parameters which derive from the underlying volatility process. Monte Carlo simulations show that the standard HEGY tests can be substantially oversized in the presence of such effects. As a consequence, we propose wild bootstrap implementations of the HEGY tests. Two possible wild bootstrap resampling schemes are discussed, both of which are shown to deliver asymptotically pivotal inference under our general conditions on the shocks. Simulation evidence is presented which suggests that our proposed bootstrap tests perform well in practice, largely correcting the size problems seen with the standard HEGY tests even under extreme patterns of heteroskedasticity, yet not losing finite sample relative to the standard HEGY tests.

Date: 2019
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Related works:
Working Paper: Wild Bootstrap Seasonal Unit Root Tests for Time Series with Periodic Non-Stationary Volatility (2016)
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DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2017.1348684

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