Economics at your fingertips  

Where does the tail begin? An approach based on scoring rules

Yannick Hoga

Econometric Reviews, 2020, vol. 39, issue 6, 579-601

Abstract: Learning about the tail shape of time series is important in, e.g., economics, finance, and risk management. However, it is well known that estimates of the tail index can be very sensitive to the choice of the number k of tail observations used for estimation. We propose a procedure that determines where the tail begins by choosing k in a data-driven fashion using scoring rules. So far, scoring rules have mainly been used to compare density forecasts. We also demonstrate how our proposal can be used in multivariate applications in the system risk literature. The advantages of our choice of k are illustrated in simulations and an empirical application to Value-at-Risk forecasts for five U.S. blue-chip stocks.

Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2019.1697087

Access Statistics for this article

Econometric Reviews is currently edited by Dr. Essie Maasoumi

More articles in Econometric Reviews from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().

Page updated 2020-09-04
Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:39:y:2020:i:6:p:579-601