The Credit-Risk Relevance of Loan Impairments Under IFRS 9 for CDS Pricing: Early Evidence

Romain Oberson

European Accounting Review, 2021, vol. 30, issue 5, 959-987

Abstract: Since 2018, banks have implemented the expected credit loss (ECL) model under International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9 to estimate loan losses, which replaces the incurred loss model under International Accounting Standard (IAS) 39. The key novelty of the ECL model is the incorporation of forward-looking information for recognizing accounting loan loss provisions (LLPs), which provides ample room for managerial discretion. Over the period 2014–2019, I first show that the shift to the ECL model improves the timeliness of loan loss recognition. However, under the IFRS 9 regime managers also use their accounting discretion more aggressively over LLP estimates to smooth earnings. I then investigate whether IFRS 9 improves the relevance of LLPs for credit default swap (CDS) pricing. I report that LLPs under IFRS 9 are incrementally more relevant than under IAS 39 for CDS pricing but mostly concentrated amongst banks with weaker pre-IFRS 9 information environments. I further show that under the IFRS 9 regime, LLPs are relevant for CDS pricing only when LLPs consistently reflect future expected losses while earnings smoothing via LLP generally impair the credit-risk relevance of LLPs. Finally, I find that strong governance is imperative for providing useful LLP estimates for CDS pricing.

Date: 2021
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09638180.2021.1956985 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:euract:v:30:y:2021:i:5:p:959-987

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/REAR20

DOI: 10.1080/09638180.2021.1956985

Access Statistics for this article

European Accounting Review is currently edited by Laurence van Lent

More articles in European Accounting Review from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().