Reserve overstocking in a highly integrated world. New evidence from Asia and Latin America

Giulio Cifarelli () and Giovanna Paladino

The European Journal of Finance, 2008, vol. 14, issue 4, 315-336

Abstract: Monthly data are used to investigate reserves management in eight Asian and Latin American countries. Idiosyncratic explanatory variables enter into co-integration relationships based on a stochastic buffer stock model, where a reserve variability measure is obtained via conditional variance approaches. International factors influence the co-integration residuals (representing the excess demands for reserves), which tend to co-move within and across geographical areas. Principal components analysis is then implemented to associate their common drivers with the US fed fund effective interest rate and real-effective exchange rate. This two-step approach sheds light on some controversial aspects of reserves and exchange rate management, such as 'fear of floating' and mercantilist behavior. Our results suggest that the size of recent excess reserve holdings is probably overstated.

Keywords: emerging markets reserves; co-integration; PCA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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DOI: 10.1080/13518470802041981

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