Linking wealth and labour income with stock returns and government bond yields

Ricardo Sousa

The European Journal of Finance, 2015, vol. 21, issue 10-11, 806-825

Abstract: In this paper, I assess the predictive ability of the ratio of asset wealth to labour income for both stock returns and government bond yields. Using data for 16 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, I show that when the wealth-to-income ratio falls, investors demand a higher stock risk premium. A similar link can be found for government bond yields when agents behave in a non-Ricardian manner or see government bonds as complements for stocks. In contrast, when investors display a Ricardian behaviour or perceive stocks and government bonds as good substitutes, a fall in the wealth-to-income ratio is associated with a fall in future bond premium.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2012.676993

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