Consumer confidence indices and stock markets' meltdowns

Elena Ferrer, Julie Salaber and Anna Zalewska

The European Journal of Finance, 2016, vol. 22, issue 3, 195-220

Abstract: Consumer confidence indices (CCIs) are a closely monitored barometer of countries' economic health and an informative forecasting tool. Using European and US data, we provide a case study of the two recent stock market meltdowns (the post-dotcom bubble correction of 2000-2002 and the 2007-2009 decline at the beginning of the financial crisis) to contribute to the discussion on their appropriateness as proxies for stock markets' investor sentiment. Investor sentiment should positively covary with stock market movements [DeLong, Shleifer, Summers, and Waldmann. 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets." Journal of Political Economy 98 (4): 703-738]; however, we find that the CCI-stock market relationship is not universally positive. We also do not find support for the information effect documented in the previous literature, but identify a more subtle relationship between consumer expectations about future household finances and stock market fluctuations.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2014.963634

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