EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Performance of technical trading rules: evidence from the crude oil market

Ioannis Psaradellis, Jason Laws, Athanasios A. Pantelous and Georgios Sermpinis

The European Journal of Finance, 2019, vol. 25, issue 17, 1793-1815

Abstract: This study investigates the debatable success of technical trading rules, through the years, on the trending energy market of crude oil. In particular, the large universe of 7846 trading rules proposed by Sullivan, Timmermann, and White (1999. “Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap.” The Journal of Finance 54 (5): 1647–1691. doi:10.1111/0022-1082.00163), divided into five families (filter rules, moving averages, support and resistance rules, channel breakouts, and on-balance volume averages), is applied to the daily prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil futures as well as the United States Oil (USO) fund, from 2006 onwards. We employ the k-familywise error rate (k-FWER) and false discovery rate (FDR) techniques proposed by Romano, J. P., and M. Wolf. (2007. “Control of Generalized Error Rates in Multiple Testing.” The Annals of Statistics 35 (4): 1378–1408. doi:10.1214/009053606000001622) and Bajgrowicz, P., and O. Scaillet. (2012. “Technical Trading Revisited: False Discoveries, Persistence Tests, and Transaction Costs.” Journal of Financial Economics 106 (3): 473–491. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2012.06.001) respectively, accounting for data snooping in order to identify significantly profitable trading strategies. Our findings explain that there is no persistent nature in rules performance, contrary to the in-sample outstanding results, although tiny profits can be achieved in some periods. Overall, our results seem to be in favor of interim market inefficiencies.

Date: 2019
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1351847X.2018.1552172 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:25:y:2019:i:17:p:1793-1815

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/REJF20

DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2018.1552172

Access Statistics for this article

The European Journal of Finance is currently edited by Chris Adcock

More articles in The European Journal of Finance from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().

 
Page updated 2022-11-18
Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:25:y:2019:i:17:p:1793-1815