The pricing of sentiment risk in European stock markets

Karl Ludwig Keiber and Helene Samyschew

The European Journal of Finance, 2019, vol. 25, issue 3, 279-302

Abstract: This paper studies whether sentiment is rewarded with a significant risk premium in the European stock markets. We examine several sentiment proxies and identify the Economic Sentiment Indicator from the EU Commission as the most relevant sentiment proxy for our sample. The analysis is performed for the contemporaneous excess returns of EA-11 stock markets in the period from February 1999 to September 2015. We apply a conditional multi-beta pricing model in order to track the variation of the sentiment risk premium over time. The results demonstrate a positive significant relationship between sentiment and contemporaneous excess returns which is consistent with previous studies. The calculated sentiment risk premium is significant as well but negative implying that an investment in EA-11 countries over the examined time period – that is bearing sentiment risk – would have been unattractive to the investors on average.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2018.1521340

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