On the macro-drivers of realized volatility: the destabilizing impact of UK policy uncertainty across Europe

M. Karanasos and S. Yfanti

The European Journal of Finance, 2020, vol. 26, issue 12, 1146-1183

Abstract: This paper studies the bivariate HEAVY system of daily and intra-daily volatility equations and its macro-augmented asymmetric power extension. We focus on economic drivers that exacerbate stock market volatility and can be proved to be major threats for financial stability. Our study proves the inflammatory effects of UK Policy Uncertainty alongside global credit and commodity factors that spread across European financial markets. This UK-led spillover phenomenon should be considered by world market participants and recognized, monitored and mitigated by policymakers amid the Brexit fears and the associated highly probable harm for Europe. Other findings are as follows. First, once we allow for power transformations, asymmetries, and macro-effects in the benchmark specification, it is found that both powered conditional variances are significantly affected by the powers of squared negative returns and realized measure, further improving the HEAVY framework's forecasting accuracy. Second, the structural breaks applied to the bivariate system capture the time-varying behavior of the parameters, in particular during the global financial crisis of 2007/08. Third, higher UK uncertainty levels increase the leverage and global macro-effects from credit and commodity markets on all European stock markets' realized volatilities.

Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1351847X.2020.1732437 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:26:y:2020:i:12:p:1146-1183

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/REJF20

DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2020.1732437

Access Statistics for this article

The European Journal of Finance is currently edited by Chris Adcock

More articles in The European Journal of Finance from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().