Ants rather than molecules: the impact of herding on investment under uncertainty

Elmar Lukas

The European Journal of Finance, 2025, vol. 31, issue 12, 1497-1516

Abstract: Building on Kirman's (1993) famous ant colony model, we develop a behavioral investment timing model under uncertainty that allows us to investigate the impact of customers' herding behavior on a firm's investment policy. In particular, we show that herding has an ambiguous impact on investment timing. Hence, the investment-uncertainty relationship becomes U-shaped, indicating that herding can encourage or discourage earlier rather than delayed investment. Further, our results underscore the significance of investment characteristics in shaping the ambiguous impact of herding on investment timing. Specifically, if a firm can alter customer behavior by enhancing the perceived value of its product relative to its competitors, it can foster the positive impact of herding on investment. Conversely, the analysis also reveals that negative shifts in consumer perception can significantly delay or halt investment, highlighting the broader economic risks of misinformation and the importance of regulatory safeguards.

Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:31:y:2025:i:12:p:1497-1516

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DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2025.2508516

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