Forecasting Housing Supply: Empirical Evidence from the Irish Market

Simon Stevenson and James Young

European Journal of Housing Policy, 2007, vol. 7, issue 1, 1-17

Abstract: This paper compares the performance of three alternative models in forecasting housing supply in the Irish Republic. The results highlight key behavioural issues in the dynamics of housing supply that the OLS and VAR models fail to adequately capture due to the inclusion of fundamental variables in their specification. The behaviour of developers in delaying projects means that housing supply can often respond slowly to demand shocks. For this reason the OLS and VAR models substantially over-estimate housing supply during the period 1998–2001. In comparison the simple ARIMA model provides generally accurate forecasts of supply.

Date: 2007
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/14616710601132518 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:eurjhp:v:7:y:2007:i:1:p:1-17

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/REUJ20

DOI: 10.1080/14616710601132518

Access Statistics for this article

European Journal of Housing Policy is currently edited by Mark Stephens

More articles in European Journal of Housing Policy from Taylor and Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().