Estimating policy positions of local parties in elections with multi-vote ballots

Dominic Nyhuis

Local Government Studies, 2017, vol. 43, issue 3, 475-498

Abstract: This paper investigates the potential for estimating policy positions from electoral results in elections with multiple votes. When voters can spread their votes across multiple party lists in open list elections, they are more likely to select candidates from parties with similar policy positions. The electoral results can therefore be exploited to infer parties’ preferences based on the structure of vote combinations. The proposed data provide a valuable tool for analysing party behaviour in circumstances where ordinary methods for estimating policy positions fail, most importantly in electoral contexts with local competitors. Applying an ideal point model for count data, party preferences are estimated for a German municipality.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1080/03003930.2017.1300146

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