Are newcomers financially responsible? Evidence from close elections in Brazilian Municipalities

Henrique Hott and Naercio Menezes-Filho

Local Government Studies, 2024, vol. 50, issue 1, 48-86

Abstract: This paper examines how mayors’ political experience impacts fiscal outcomes. Using a regression discontinuity design in highly-contested elections in Brazilian municipalities, we estimate the differences in fiscal performance between newcomers and veteran politicians. We find that municipalities governed by mayors who never won an election before experience a worse budget balance and a substantial increase in public investments. This difference appears to be driven by differences in candidates’ experience rather than by factors such as re-election concern, ideology, vertical partisan alignment, gender and political party turnover.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/03003930.2023.2185230

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