The political dynamics of carbon emissions: evidence from Chinese firms

Long Wang, Javier Cifuentes-Faura, Chang’an Wang and Xiaoqian Liu

Local Government Studies, 2025, vol. 51, issue 6, 1214-1245

Abstract: The government plays a crucial role in promoting carbon emission reduction as a policy maker, regulatory enforcer, and market facilitator. However, the political dynamics of local officials can significantly affect the effectiveness of local governments’ functions. Based on panel data, this paper investigates the political dynamics of firms’ carbon emissions from three perspectives: officials’ political change, the political cycle, and political tenure. We find that local officials’ change has a positive impact on firms’ carbon emissions. Firms’ carbon emissions exhibit a cyclical pattern aligned with the political cycle of the Party Congress, decreasing pre-Party Congress and rising post-Party Congress. Additionally, firms’ carbon emissions increase with the extension of political tenure. This paper provides support for a deeper understanding of China’s political selection system and its impact on firms’ carbon emissions. We also offer suggestions for transitioning China’s official evaluation system from a GDP-based mode to a sustainable development-oriented metric.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/03003930.2025.2512762

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