Financing COVID-19, Inflation and the Fiscal Constraint

Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira ()

Forum for Social Economics, 2020, vol. 49, issue 3, 241-256

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic is producing an economic depression that, however, could be substantially reduced if the state in each country, besides making the required health spending, compensates the companies and households that are losing with the social distance and lockdown policies. Governments, however, limit their expenditures not to increase the public debt. There is, however, the possibility that central banks buy new securities from the Treasury to finance such exceptional spending. Considering several economic constraints that policymakers face, this policy will not conflict with the inflation constraint. Money is an endogenous variable that does not cause but just validates a going inflation. It conflicts partially with the fiscal constraint, but avoids the increase in the public debt. And, in this case, it does not have the bad consequences of fiscal indiscipline—excess demand that, successively, causes increases in imports and current account deficits that appreciate the national currency, accelerate inflation, and lead to currency crises. Monetary financing of the COVID-19 will not cause any of these three evils.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1080/07360932.2020.1792176

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