A Popular Mandate for Strongmen: What Public Opinion Data Reveals About Support for Executive Aggrandizement in Turkey, 1996-2018

Dean Schafer

South European Society and Politics, 2021, vol. 26, issue 3, 355-382

Abstract: Most analysis of democratic backsliding focuses on the elite or party level. This article takes a bottom-up approach. In Turkey, popular support for a strong, undemocratic leader developed independently of Erdoğan and the AKP, but later consolidated behind the party. Analysis of longitudinal public opinion data reveals that the 2000– 2001 economic crisis undermined the democratic consensus, but that economic prosperity – far from restoring faith in democracy – reinforced support for a strongman leader as an alternative to liberal democracy among populations that benefited the most economically: the middle class and economic elites. Additionally, individuals who identify strongly with politically predominant social groups tend to support undemocratic leaders. This analysis improves our understanding of mass-level support for authoritarian leaders in democracies.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1080/13608746.2022.2034689

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