Changing Preferences versus Issue Salience: The Political Success of Anti-immigration Parties in Italy

Beatrice Magistro and Nicolas Wittstock

South European Society and Politics, 2021, vol. 26, issue 3, 383-411

Abstract: The electoral successes of European far right parties in the 21st century coincided with increased immigration. While some argue these parallel trends suggest immigration sours opinion towards foreigners, a growing literature suggests it is the fluctuation in issue salience which matters. We investigate the overlooked case of Italy, which has long featured anti-immigration parties. Analysing multiple data sources, we find immigration preferences remained stable throughout 2006, 2013, and 2018 – but issue salience varied considerably, tracking the anti-immigration vote. Voters are more likely to opt for anti-immigration parties when immigration is a high salience issue, suggesting that salience, not changing preferences, is associated with far right political success.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1080/13608746.2021.2009107

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