Network structure of insurgent groups and the success of DDR processes in Colombia

Ernesto Cardenas, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch and Luis Carlos Guevara

Small Wars and Insurgencies, 2018, vol. 29, issue 4, 754-775

Abstract: We argue that organizational structure of insurgent organizations influences the prospects for success in a disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration process (DDR). In essence, we argue that more cohesive, tighter networks have higher levels of supervision and control on its military units and increase the probability of successful DDR processes. In order to evaluate our hypotheses, we use the theory of networks to map and characterize the network structure of the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Our results suggest that armed military units grouped in smaller and more isolated components on the network remilitarize with higher probability with respect to other units on the network. Also, we find that military units with high degree of centrality on the network play an important role for the risk of conflict recurrence and success in a DDR process.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1080/09592318.2018.1488416

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