Unpacking water conflicts in Africa: exploring key drivers

Lucie Konecna

Small Wars and Insurgencies, 2025, vol. 36, issue 1, 1-28

Abstract: This study explores the conditions of low-intensity intrastate and non-state water conflicts in Africa (2018 to 2023). Using Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) of 44 conflicts, it examines seven factors: agricultural dependency, water infrastructure investments, ethnic segregation, income inequality, political instability, water scarcity, water quality, and population growth alongside urbanization rates. The research identifies necessary and sufficient conditions for these conflicts, emphasizing high agricultural dependency as critical. Socio-economic inequalities and inadequate water infrastructure also significantly shape conflict dynamics. The study reveals four configurations, illustrating the complex interaction of these factors and advocating integrated water management and socio-economic interventions to mitigate conflicts.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/09592318.2024.2429050

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