Civil wars and armed groups under COVID-19: motivations and factors in the silencing guns and the persistence of violence

Sergio Aguilar and Julia Aparecido

Small Wars and Insurgencies, 2025, vol. 36, issue 6, 1164-1206

Abstract: The COVID-19 crisis posed unprecedented challenges worldwide. Due to uncertainties and the United Nations Secretary-General’s call for a global ceasefire, a reconfiguration of the levels of violence was expected. Conversely, there was a possibility that state and non-state armed groups would take advantage of the pandemic for their own strategic aims. Initial findings indicated that violence persisted during the pandemic. While some armed groups temporarily decreased their activities, others continued their attacks. This paper aims to qualitatively analyse armed groups’ behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on conflicts in the Central African Republic (CAR), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Mali and South Sudan. Our main argument is that the exploitation of the pandemic by certain armed groups is related to their motivations, the nature of the conflict, the operating environment, and their position within the conflict. This study contributes to prior research on civil wars and adds some insights into how the pandemic affected civil wars in particular, as well as peace and security in a broader sense by explaining how and why armed groups behaved during the COVID-19 crisis.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/09592318.2025.2494821

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