Splinters and Schisms: Rebel Group Fragmentation and the Durability of Insurgencies

Charles W. Mahoney

Terrorism and Political Violence, 2020, vol. 32, issue 2, 345-364

Abstract: Insurgent organizations often experience internal fragmentation when a faction breaks away to form a separate group with independent leadership. Following a split, what factors influence the relative durability and status of groups within larger nationalist movements? Existing theory attributes variation in groups’ performance after a division to rebel strategy. Specifically, some work argues that extremist groups using violence will outbid more moderate competitors; however, alternate research contends organizations using strategic non-violence will have more success. Contrary to previous work, this inquiry argues that in many instances rebel strategy following a split has little influence on the duration and status of groups. Instead, organizations’ relative membership size at the time of a division is the most important factor influencing their subsequent performance. That is, after a split larger core groups are more likely to survive for longer periods and to advance within their broader nationalist movements than splinter groups. However, in cases when divisions result in groups of similar size and strength, strategy may still play a significant role in rebel organizations’ comparative longevity and status.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1080/09546553.2017.1374254

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