Where Terror Lies: Misrepresentation of Extremist Attitudes and Terrorist Attacks in the Sahel

Steven E. Finkel, John F. McCauley, Michael Neureiter and Christopher A. Belasco

Terrorism and Political Violence, 2023, vol. 35, issue 4, 888-907

Abstract: Researchers have commonly treated misrepresentations in survey responses as an impediment to the accurate measurement of a variable or construct of substantive importance. This study builds on that approach and considers whether misreporting bias regarding support for violent extremism—both under- and over-reporting—may then have consequences for how terrorist violence itself unfolds. Using data from nearly 4,000 respondents in thirty-five communes in Burkina Faso, Chad, and Niger collected just prior to a recent wave of terrorist attacks, we find that communes where individuals under-report their true support for violent extremism—as measured with unobtrusive experimental methods—have a greater probability of experiencing subsequent Islamist attacks, controlling for socio-demographic characteristics of the commune, country-level proximity effects, and other time-varying factors. The findings raise important considerations regarding the measurement of extremist support, and they suggest a new tool for identifying communities potentially susceptible to terrorist violence.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/09546553.2021.1987893

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