The S-Curve Dynamics of US-Hong Kong Commodity Trade

Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee and Jia Xu

Global Economic Review, 2010, vol. 39, issue 2, 117-128

Abstract: It has been proved theoretically that correlation coefficients between future values of the trade balance and current exchange rate is positive where as those correlation coefficients between past values of the trade balance and the current exchange rate is negative, hence the S-Curve pattern. In this paper we tested the empirical validity of the curve using annual data from the period 1978-2006 of 104 industries that trade between the US and Hong Kong. We found evidence of the S-Curve in 34 industries. Included among the 34 industries one could see small and large industries as well as durable and non-durable ones.

Keywords: S-Curve; industry data; the US; Hong Kong (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.1080/1226508X.2010.483833

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