Level and Volatility of Stock Prices and Aggregate Investment: The Case of Thailand

Mansor Ibrahim

Global Economic Review, 2011, vol. 40, issue 4, 445-461

Abstract: The present paper analyzes the aggregate investment behaviour for Thailand and its relations to real stock prices and stock market volatility. In the analysis, we focus on their long run relations as well as their dynamic causal interactions by means of time series techniques of cointegration and vector autoregression (VAR). Our basic framework consists of real aggregate investment, real output, lending rate, real stock prices and stock market volatility. We obtain evidence for their long run relation and that, in the long run, real aggregate investment is positively related to real stock prices and negatively related to the stock market volatility.The generalized impulse-response functions (IRF) generated from the VAR also paint similar picture in that the real aggregate investment reacts positively to shocks in real stock prices and negatively to innovations in stock market volatility. These results tend to be robust when we extend the framework to include alternatively real credits, real effective exchange rate and real government spending.

Date: 2011
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DOI: 10.1080/1226508X.2011.626155

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