A Kuznets Approach to Analysing the Potential Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Inequality

Loek Groot and Chintani Sooriyamudali

Global Economic Review, 2025, vol. 54, issue 1, 2-20

Abstract: This paper estimates the global Kuznets curve (2005-2020) by plotting global mean income against global inequality, while exploring COVID-19's impact on inequality. Using PPP adjusted GDP per capita and Gini index data from 122 countries (94% global GDP, 88% population), global income is simulated assuming lognormality. The paper finds that, at the pandemic outbreak, the world was on the downward part of the Kuznets curve. Compared to within-country inequality, between country inequality contributes significantly to global inequality. While the pandemic may temporarily decelerate the decline of global inequality, the long-term impact will be determined by the level of international cooperation in the global response to the pandemic.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/1226508X.2025.2487968

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