On the Internal Consistency of Stock Market Forecasts

Christian Pierdzioch and Jan-Christoph Rülke

Journal of Behavioral Finance, 2014, vol. 15, issue 4, 351-359

Abstract: Using the Livingston survey data, we test internal consistency restrictions on short-term, medium-term, and long-term stock market forecasts of the S&P 500®. We find that neither short-term forecasts are consistent with medium-term forecasts nor that medium-term forecasts are consistent with long-term forecasts. Using a forecast formation process featuring a distributed lag structure, however, we find some weak evidence of internal inconsistency of medium-term forecasts with long-term forecasts.

Date: 2014
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/15427560.2014.968720 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:hbhfxx:v:15:y:2014:i:4:p:351-359

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/hbhf20

DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2014.968720

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Behavioral Finance is currently edited by Brian Bruce

More articles in Journal of Behavioral Finance from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().