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Exogenous and Endogenous Attention and the Convergence of Analysts’ Forecasts

Robert B. Durand, Manapon Limkriangkrai and Lucia Fung

Journal of Behavioral Finance, 2019, vol. 20, issue 2, 154-172

Abstract: The propensity of the forecasts of sell-side financial analysts to converge (or diverge) is a function of their exogenous and endogenous selective attention and overconfidence. When returns are negative, the endogenous form of selective attention—a static measure of analysts’ goal-driven attention at a particular point in time—has a positive association with convergence. The exogenous form of selective attention—a relatively involuntary dynamic process of exogenous attentional shift driven by external changes in the market over time—is associated with a tendency for forecasts to diverge.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2018.1504783

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