The Semiconductors – Economic Growth Nexus

Emmanuel Apergis, Andreas Markoulakis and Nicholas Apergis

International Journal of the Economics of Business, 2025, vol. 32, issue 3, 353-374

Abstract: With the prominent role of semiconductors in many digital products and the wider digitisation of the supply chain, the investigation carried out aims to capture the macroeconomic significance of the semiconductor sector on economic growth. Semiconductor manufacturing output is treated as a sector-specific driver with potential spillover effects on aggregate economic performance. The analysis specifies an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine (1) the long-run and short-run impact of semiconductor production on GDP and (2) to quantify the structural antecedents of semiconductor production itself. The findings indicate that an 1% increase in manufacturing semiconductors is associated with a 0.05% increase in output in the long run and 0.01% rise in the short run. In addition, an 1% investment in the software sector (e.g. fabless) stimulates the production of semiconductor foundries by 2.89%. A contraction of workforce in the sector has been also identified.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/13571516.2025.2548658

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