Economics at your fingertips  

Business cycle asymmetries in Turkey: an application of Markov-switching autoregressions

Huseyin Tastan and Nuri Yildirim ()

International Economic Journal, 2008, vol. 22, issue 3, 315-333

Abstract: This paper examines business cycle characteristics of the Turkish economy in the liberalization (post-1980) period using a Markov-switching Autoregressive (MSAR) model framework. The importance of the model selection process is emphasized in an extensive search for the appropriate MS model. The business cycle properties are found to be very sensitive to the state dimension, the choice of the MS model (classified according to regime-dependent parameters) and the autoregressive lag order. The chosen two-regime MS model suggests four recessionary and five expansionary phases in the post-1980 period. Business cycle phases are found to be asymmetric with the probability of switching from a recession to expansion exceeding the probability of switching from expansion to recession. The paper also provides evidence on the usefulness of a non-linear model as compared with a linear alternative in the context of business cycle research in an emerging economy using various parametric and non-parametric tests. Non-linear and linear models are compared and evaluated using kernel density and conditional expectation estimates by simulating data from respective models.

Keywords: Markov switching AR model; business cycle; asymmetry tests; emerging economy; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

DOI: 10.1080/10168730802376151

Access Statistics for this article

International Economic Journal is currently edited by Jaymin Lee Editor

More articles in International Economic Journal from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().

Page updated 2021-10-13
Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:22:y:2008:i:3:p:315-333