 Can China Feed its People into the Next Millennium? Projections for China's grain supply and demand to 2010Liming Wang and John Davis International Review of Applied Economics, 1998, vol. 12, issue 1, 53-67 Abstract: Econometric models of grain supply and demand which incorporate the effects of policy interventions and institutional changes are used as the basis for projecting grain balances in China to 2010. The paper outlines key assumptions about future changes in grain policies and other important explanatory variables in the models. On the supply side, projections are made for grain sown area, grain yield and total grain output. Future grain demand is disaggregated into four categories, human food, animal feed, industrial uses and seed grain, each incorporating high, medium and low demand growth scenarios. A grain balance sheet is constructed for 2010 which shows a 'most probable' import requirement of about 32 million tones—a 10 million tones increase over the actual 1995 level. Thus, net grain imports will increase substantially but China is unlikely to become an importer on a massive scale. Date: 1998 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:irapec:v:12:y:1998:i:1:p:53-67 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from DOI: 10.1080/026921719800000025 Access Statistics for this article International Review of Applied Economics is currently edited by Professor Malcolm Sawyer More articles in International Review of Applied Economics from Taylor & Francis Journals |
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