Consumption and stock markets in Asian economies

Xiaohui Liu and Chang Shu

International Review of Applied Economics, 2004, vol. 18, issue 4, 483-496

Abstract: This paper investigates the causal links between stock market performance and consumption for five Asian economies by applying the bound tests of Pesaran et al. and lag augmented VAR of Toda and Yamamoto . We find two-way causal relationships between stock market performance and consumption in the cases of Hong Kong and Taiwan in the long run. The existence of such two-way causal links indicates that stock market performance and consumption mutually affect each other, implying that the previous studies may have overestimated the wealth effect of the stock markets without taking account of the reverse causation from consumption to the stock markets. The short-run effect of the stock market on consumption is more visible than the long-run effect in most of the sample economies, suggesting that changes in consumption directly reflect stock market fluctuations.

Keywords: Asian economies; bound tests; consumption; lag-augmented VAR and stock markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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DOI: 10.1080/0269217042000266435

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