Changes in cyclical patterns of the USA labor market: from the perspective of nonlinear Okun’s law

Jong-seok Oh

International Review of Applied Economics, 2018, vol. 32, issue 2, 237-258

Abstract: The validity of Okun’s law has been debated because of the increase in cyclicality in aggregate hours after 1985. To investigate this, I measure Okun’s coefficients in three phases of the business cycle – recession, early, and late expansions. I found that an increased coefficient for aggregate hours is due to the increased responsiveness of the employment rate during late expansions and to the increased responsiveness of hours per employee during early expansions. These findings question the flexible labor market hypothesis focusing on firms’ firing behaviors during recessions. Rather, working hours’ flexibility represents a more prominent feature of the post-1985 USA labor market.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1080/02692171.2017.1339023

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