Simulation of the impact of economic policies on poverty and inequality: GEM in micro-simulation for the Algerian economy

Touitou Mohammed

International Review of Applied Economics, 2018, vol. 32, issue 3, 308-330

Abstract: This paper presents an illustration of the importance of computable general equilibrium modelling micro-simulation for simulating the impact of economic policies on living levels of households. The CGEM, as built, was used to simulate the effects of some economic policies on the economy and living levels of all households including the classes of modest, middle and wealthy households. In this context, pro-active economic policies are simulated in order to understand their effects on the macroeconomic plan and on the living level of some household categories defined according to statistical criteria. The first on the analysis of two arbitrarily selected tax policy cases, and the other on three investment policy simulations. Different illustrated simulations show improvements in economic growth and upward social mobility, particularly in the case of increasing the overall investment and improving productive capacity. In all simulations, that inequality would have remained rigid downward and would sometimes even accentuate. Overall, it appears that the increase in investment would boost economic growth through demand effect. However, this increase in demand would be met by more imports, which would damage our trade balance. The national productive system, however, could reverse this trend by making profitable investments by strengthening its productive capacity.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1080/02692171.2017.1342778

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