On thresholds in the climate–migration relationship

Dorian Owen and Dennis Wesselbaum

International Review of Applied Economics, 2020, vol. 34, issue 3, 400-412

Abstract: In this paper, we empirically investigate whether the climate–migration relationship exhibits thresholds. We employ a threshold regression model and a large data set of international migration flows to investigate the existence of thresholds in the climate–migration relationship, while allowing for time-variability in the thresholds. We find evidence for one threshold in the temperature–migration relationship. The average temperature threshold in our sample is found to be 21.78°C (71.2°F) which is supported by results in other parts of the climate-society literature. However, we find that the threshold varies around a constant mean. Finally, our results show that, at the threshold, the effects of the other control variables, such as income and migration costs, change sizably.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1080/02692171.2020.1749242

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