Mathematical models: a state of exception

Andrea Saltelli, Arnald Puy and Monica Di Fiore

International Review of Applied Economics, 2025, vol. 39, issue 6, 862-879

Abstract: Models live in a state of exception. Their versatility, the variety of their methods, the impossibility of their falsification and their epistemic authority allow mathematical models to escape, better than other cases of quantification, the lenses of sociology and other humanistic disciplines. This endows models with a pretence of neutrality that perpetuates the asymmetry between developers and users. Models are thus both underexplored and overinterpreted. While retaining a firm grip on policy, they reinforce the entrenched culture of transforming political issues into technical ones, possibly decreasing citizens’ agency and thus favouring anti-democratic policies. To combat this state of exception, one should question the reproducibility of models, foster complexity of interpretation rather than complexity of construction, and encourage forms of activism aimed at achieving a reciprocal domestication between models and society. To breach the solitude of modellers, more actors should engage in practices such as assumption hunting, modelling of the modelling process, and sensitivity analysis and auditing.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/02692171.2024.2365727

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