Climate Instability, Urbanisation and International Migration

Mathilde Maurel and Michele Tuccio

Journal of Development Studies, 2016, vol. 52, issue 5, 735-752

Abstract: This paper focuses on climate-induced migration. We construct a simple theoretical model where, in a first step, climate shocks accelerate the transition from the traditional to the modern sector, leading rural workers to move to urban centres within national borders, while in a second step, downward pressures on wages due to the greater labour supply in cities push people to engage in international migration. To test this hypothesis, we exploit a rich panel dataset, displaying a representative picture of bilateral migration flows and climatic data across 222 countries for the period 1960–2000. Findings suggest that in the next few years the climate-induced growth rate of migrant stocks might be in a range between 8.6 per cent and 12.8 per cent, especially from developing countries, where the level of rural employment is more likely to be affected by climatic shocks.

Date: 2016
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Working Paper: Climate instability, urbanization and international migration (2016)
Working Paper: Climate instability, urbanization and international migration (2016)
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DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2015.1121240

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